Many countries have released agricultural food programs from “closure” policies introduced in early 2020 to prevent the outbreak of COVID-19.
However, these policies have had an impact on the economy as a whole, meaning that even liberated sectors have been indirectly affected by supply chain disruptions and declining consumer demand. After their first confirmed case, the Nigerian governments and governments used to close many cities and provinces.
This includes closing down all borders and many non-essential businesses. Nigeria has also been hit by declining tariffs and foreign demand due to land recession.
We estimate the global economic impacts of these global closure and panic policies using the Nigerian repetitive model measured in the 2018 public accounting matrix.
We are imitating an eight-week lockout in Nigeria (March-June), as well as “recovery” conditions until the end of 2020. The simulation draws information from official data, policy announcements, and discussions with government agencies and non-governmental organizations and industry groups. The findings show that total GDP decreased by 23% during the lockdown.
The Agri-food GDP program has declined by 11%, largely due to food service restrictions. Household income also declined quarterly, resulting in a 9% increase in national poverty.
Given the magnitude of these economic losses, our recovery conditions indicate that, despite the immediate reduction of globalization and recovery, Nigeria will no longer be able to escape the deep recession.
We conclude that, while diet plans were not charged, they were not protected from the effects of COVID-19. Food security should be at the forefront of government efforts to address the health effects of the epidemic.